MeritValue

MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/

MARdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ earns about 246% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $89.95 and $569.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.9B1$20.8B2$23.7B3$25.1B3$26.2B3
Net income$1.1B4$2.36B5$3.08B6$2.38B6$2.6B6
Operating cash flow$1.18B7$2.36B8$3.17B9$2.75B9$3.21B9
Capital expenditure$183M10$332M11$452M11$750M11$604M12
Free cash flow (derived)$994M7$2.03B8$2.72B9$2B9$2.61B9
Total debt$135M13$92M14$56M15$55M16$23M16
Cash & equivalents$1.39B17$507M18$338M19$396M20$358M20
Diluted shares329.3M325.8M302.9M285.2M273.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$137.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$95.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$95.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.84

10 shares is a claim on −$137.83 of net worth that earned you $95.07 and generated $95.32 of cash last year, against $0.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
246% avg · 5y
FY21 78%FY22 415%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about 246% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 83% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $89.95 and $569.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$569.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.61B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$312.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.61B
Earnings Power Value
$89.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.38B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $312.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$137.42
Base20.0%$312.01
Bull20.0%$312.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004372 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004818 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001048286-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004372 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004818 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001048286-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004372 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004818 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001048286-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004372 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004818 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001048286-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003485 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004372 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004818 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001048286-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003485 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004372 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004818 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001048286-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)