MeritValue

MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC

MANHdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC earns about 4254% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.97 and $251.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$663.6M1$767.1M2$928.7M3$1.04B3$1.08B3
Net income$110.5M4$129M5$176.6M6$218.4M6$219.9M6
Operating cash flow$185.2M7$179.6M8$246.2M9$295M9$389.5M9
Capital expenditure$4.02M10$6.59M11$4.73M12$8.68M12$15.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$181.2M7$173M8$241.5M9$286.3M9$374M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$263.7M13$225.5M14$270.7M15$266.2M16$328.7M16
Diluted shares64.3M63.4M62.6M62.2M61.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.03
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.26
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $51.56 of net worth that earned you $36.03 and generated $61.26 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4254% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 9682%FY23 2401%FY24 679%FY25 —

It earned about 4254% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.97 and $251.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$251.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.3%
  • fcfBase$286.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$148.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.3%
  • fcfBase$286.3M
Earnings Power Value
$29.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$176.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $148.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.39
Base18.3%$148.41
Bull20.0%$158.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-011411 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016295 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-037138 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-011411 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016295 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-037138 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-011411 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016295 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-037138 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-011411 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016295 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-037138 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-001892 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-011411 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016295 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-037138 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)