MeritValue

ManpowerGroup Inc.

MANdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ManpowerGroup Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.22 and $32.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.7B1$19.8B2$18.9B3$17.9B3$18B3
Net income$382.4M4$373.8M5$88.8M6$145.1M6−$13.3M6
Operating cash flow$644.8M7$423.3M8$348.2M9$309.2M9−$104.1M9
Capital expenditure$64.2M10$75.6M11$78.2M12$51.1M12$57.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$580.6M7$347.7M8$270M9$258.1M9−$161.4M9
Total debt$2.77B13$1.98B14$2.01B15$1.91B16$3.94B16
Cash & equivalents$847.8M17$639M18$581.3M19$509.4M20$871M20
Diluted shares55.4M52.8M50.4M48.3M46.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$441.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.85
Free cash flow it threw off
−$34.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$846.48

10 shares is a claim on $441.97 of net worth that earned you −$2.85 and generated −$34.64 of cash last year, against $846.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 9%FY23 2%FY24 3%FY25 -0%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.22 and $32.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$258.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$258.1M
Earnings Power Value
$32.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$145.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.18
Base0.0%$13.18
Bull5.0%$32.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016399 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023186 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064113 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016399 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023186 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064113 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016399 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023186 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064113 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016399 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023186 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064113 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003214 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016399 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023186 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064113 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003214 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016399 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023186 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064113 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)