MeritValue

Main Street Capital CORP

MAINdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Main Street Capital CORP earns about 16% on equity, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $49.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$330.8M1$241.6M2$428.4M3$508.1M3$493.4M3
Operating cash flow−$515.4M4−$246.9M5$285.3M6−$87.1M6−$45.7M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.8B7$2B8$1.8B9$2.12B10$2.46B10
Cash & equivalents$32.6M11$49.1M12$60.1M13$78.3M14$42M14
Diluted shares69.0M74.5M81.9M86.8M89.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$335.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$55.21
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$275.01

10 shares is a claim on $335.03 of net worth that earned you $55.21 last year, against $275.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
16% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 11%FY23 17%FY24 18%FY25 16%

It earned an average 16% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$49.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$428.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396440-24-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396440-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001396440-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396440-24-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396440-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001396440-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396440-23-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396440-24-000055 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001396440-25-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001396440-26-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396440-23-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396440-24-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001396440-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001396440-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)