MeritValue

MAIA Biotechnology, Inc.

MAIAdata completeness 63%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. earns about -955% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 508% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$02$03—
Net income−$12.6M4−$15.8M5−$19.8M6−$23.3M7−$22.4M7
Operating cash flow−$4.12M8−$12.1M9−$13.1M10−$15.7M11−$18.8M11
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$012$013$014$015$015
Diluted shares5.3M9.3M13.3M22.2M32.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.97
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.74 of net worth that earned you −$6.97 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-955% avg · 5y
FY21 -101%FY22 -147%FY23 -3275%FY24 -505%FY25 -745%

It earned an average -955% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+508% shares · 5y

Share count is up 508% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009766 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034764 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043190 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009766 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034764 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043190 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012088 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009766 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034764 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043190 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012088 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009766 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034764 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043190 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012088 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)