MeritValue

Mastercard Inc

MAdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Mastercard Inc earns about 81% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $128.05 and $714.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.8B1$22.2B2$25.1B3$28.2B3$32.8B3
Net income$8.69B4$9.93B5$11.2B6$12.9B6$15B6
Operating cash flow$9.46B7$11.2B8$12B9$14.8B9$17.6B9
Capital expenditure$407M10$442M11$371M12$474M12$489M12
Free cash flow (derived)$9.06B7$10.8B8$11.6B9$14.3B9$17.2B9
Total debt$13.9B13$14B14$15.7B15$18.2B16$19B16
Cash & equivalents$7.42B17$7.01B18$8.59B19$8.44B20$10.6B20
Diluted shares992.0M971.0M946.0M927.0M906.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$85.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$165.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$189.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$209.71

10 shares is a claim on $85.4 of net worth that earned you $165.21 and generated $189.39 of cash last year, against $209.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
81% avg · 5y
FY21 66%FY22 78%FY23 83%FY24 82%FY25 96%

It earned about 81% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $128.05 and $714.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$714.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.5%
  • fcfBase$14.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$439.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.5%
  • fcfBase$14.3B
Earnings Power Value
$128.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.2B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$56.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $439.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$216.3
Base16.5%$439.19
Bull20.0%$505.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001141391-22-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001141391-25-000011 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001141391-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001141391-24-000022 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001141391-25-000011 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001141391-26-000013 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001141391-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001141391-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001141391-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001141391-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001141391-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001141391-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001141391-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001141391-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001141391-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001141391-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001141391-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001141391-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001141391-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001141391-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)