MeritValue

Macy's, Inc.

Mdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Macy's, Inc. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.06 and $46.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$24.5B1$24.4B2$23.1B3$22.3B3$21.8B3
Net income$1.43B4$1.15B5$45M6$582M6$642M6
Operating cash flow$2.71B7$1.62B8$1.31B9$1.28B9$1.43B9
Capital expenditure$354M10$888M11$631M12$518M12$373M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.36B7$727M8$674M9$760M9$1.06B9
Total debt$3.3B13$3B14$3B14$6M15$015
Cash & equivalents$1.71B16$862M17$1.03B18$1.31B19$1.25B19
Diluted shares314.0M281.1M278.2M281.6M276.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$175.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $175.77 of net worth that earned you $23.22 and generated $38.23 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY22 31%FY23 21%FY24 4%FY25 22%FY26 21%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.06 and $46.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$45.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.5%
  • fcfBase$760M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.5%
  • fcfBase$760M
Earnings Power Value
$24.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$642M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.78
Base1.5%$46.43
Bull6.5%$56.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-012734 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-014315 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021721 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-012734 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-014315 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021721 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-012734 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-014315 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021721 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-012734 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-014315 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021721 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-23-009154 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-24-012734 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001628280-26-021721 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-23-009154 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-24-012734 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-25-014315 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001628280-26-021721 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)