MeritValue

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.

LYVdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. earns about 350% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.17 and $87.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.27B1$16.7B2$22.7B3$23.2B3$25.2B3
Net income−$650.9M4$266.4M5$556.9M6$896.3M6$496M6
Operating cash flow$1.78B7$1.84B8$1.36B9$1.73B9$1.4B9
Capital expenditure$152.7M10$347.2M11$438.6M12$646.6M12$1.06B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.63B7$1.49B8$924.4M9$1.08B9$333.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$4.88B13$5.61B14$6.23B15$6.1B16$7.09B16
Diluted shares217.2M231.6M231.0M236.4M231.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.69 of net worth that earned you $21.39 and generated $14.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
350% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 —FY24 517%FY25 183%

It earned about 350% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.17 and $87.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$83.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$924.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$87.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$924.4M
Earnings Power Value
$22.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$496M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $87.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$87.56
Base0.0%$87.56
Bull5.0%$101.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001335258-24-000017 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001335258-25-000028 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001335258-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001335258-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001335258-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001335258-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001335258-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001335258-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001335258-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001335258-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001335258-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001335258-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001335258-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001335258-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001335258-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001335258-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)