MeritValue

LSI INDUSTRIES INC

LYTSdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

LSI INDUSTRIES INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.27 and $25.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$455.1M1$497M2$469.6M3$573.4M3$689.4M3
Net income$15M4$25.8M5$25M6$24.4M6$22.6M6
Operating cash flow−$3.86M7$49.6M8$43.4M9$38.1M9$44.1M9
Capital expenditure$2.12M10$3.21M11$5.39M12$3.47M12$5.14M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.99M7$46.4M8$38M9$34.7M9$39M9
Total debt$159.2M13$70.4M14$108.5M15$97.1M16$511.9M16
Cash & equivalents$2.46M17$1.83M18$4.11M19$3.46M20$14.2M20
Diluted shares28.0M29.3M30.1M30.8M33.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$107
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$151.86

10 shares is a claim on $107 of net worth that earned you $6.7 and generated $11.57 of cash last year, against $151.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 5%FY23 12%FY24 9%FY25 8%FY26 3%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 222% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.27 and $25.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.8%
  • fcfBase$38M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.8%
  • fcfBase$38M
Earnings Power Value
$7.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$24.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.8%
Discount rate (WACC)9.22%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.66
Base13.8%$12.75
Bull18.8%$18.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029621 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029621 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029621 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029621 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029621 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029621 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)