LSI INDUSTRIES INC
LYTSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileLSI INDUSTRIES INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.2 and $43.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $315.6M1 | $455.1M2 | $497M3 | $469.6M4 | $573.4M4 |
| Net income | $5.87M5 | $15M6 | $25.8M7 | $25M8 | $24.4M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $28M9 | −$3.86M10 | $49.6M11 | $43.4M12 | $38.1M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.23M13 | $2.12M14 | $3.21M15 | $5.39M16 | $3.47M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $25.8M9 | −$5.99M10 | $46.4M11 | $38M12 | $34.7M12 |
| Total debt | $136.4M17 | $159.2M18 | $70.4M19 | $108.5M20 | $97.1M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.28M21 | $2.46M22 | $1.83M23 | $4.11M24 | $3.46M24 |
| Diluted shares | 27.4M | 28.0M | 29.3M | 30.1M | 30.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $74.83 of net worth that earned you $7.91 and generated $11.24 of cash last year, against $31.5 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.2 and $43.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth13.8%
- fcfBase$38M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth13.8%
- fcfBase$38M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$24.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $14.57 |
| Base | 13.8% | $28.47 |
| Bull | 18.8% | $35.35 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 13.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022143 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022143 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022143 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022143 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022143 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022143 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025488 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028964 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028862 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)