MeritValue

Lyra Therapeutics, Inc.

LYRAdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -268% on equity, and has bought back 88% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$285,0001$1.36M2$1.56M3$1.53M4$398,0004
Net income−$43.5M5−$55.3M6−$62.7M7−$93.4M8−$28.9M8
Operating cash flow−$25.8M9−$43.4M10−$63.3M11−$70M12−$28.9M12
Capital expenditure$3.39M13$164,00014$1.05M15$2.34M16$116,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$29.2M9−$43.5M10−$64.4M11−$72.3M12−$29M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$45.7M17$32.6M18$22.4M19$40.6M20$15.9M20
Diluted shares13.0M30.2M49.8M1.3M1.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$68.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$186.16
Free cash flow it threw off
−$186.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$68.99 of net worth that earned you −$186.16 and generated −$186.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-268% avg · 5y
FY21 -127%FY22 -68%FY23 -70%FY24 -806%FY25 —

It earned an average -268% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−88% shares · 5y

Share count is down 88% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010632 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038751 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001327273-26-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010632 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001327273-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010632 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001327273-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010632 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038751 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001327273-26-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010632 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038751 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001327273-26-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)