MeritValue

Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.

LYELdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. earns about -57% on equity, and has bought back 87% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.7M1$84.7M2$130,0003$61,0003$36,0003
Net income−$250.2M4−$183.1M5−$234.6M6−$343M6−$274.4M6
Operating cash flow−$126.2M7−$169.6M8−$163.7M9−$162.4M9−$150M9
Capital expenditure$65.5M10$24.3M11$2.69M12$464,00012$780,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$191.8M7−$193.8M8−$166.4M9−$162.9M9−$150.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$293.8M13$123.6M14$145.6M15$105.6M15$60.2M15
Diluted shares135.9M247.1M12.5M13.1M17.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$145.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$160.56
Free cash flow it threw off
−$88.23
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $145.21 of net worth that earned you −$160.56 and generated −$88.23 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-57% avg · 5y
FY21 -27%FY22 -22%FY23 -36%FY24 -90%FY25 -111%

It earned an average -57% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−87% shares · 5y

Share count is down 87% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007592 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011978 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017253 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007592 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011978 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017253 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007592 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011978 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017253 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007592 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011978 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017253 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007592 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011978 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017253 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)