MeritValue

LyondellBasell Industries N.V.

LYBdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.24 and $97.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$46.2B1$50.5B2$33.3B3$33.4B3$30.2B3
Net income$5.62B4$3.89B5$2.12B6$1.37B6−$738M6
Operating cash flow$7.7B7$6.12B8$4.94B9$3.82B9$2.26B9
Capital expenditure$1.96B10$1.89B11$1.53B12$1.84B12$1.88B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.74B7$4.23B8$3.41B9$1.98B9$384M9
Total debt$362M13$349M14$117M15$119M16$226M16
Cash & equivalents$1.47B17$2.15B18$3.39B19$3.38B20$3.44B20
Diluted shares329.5M325.7M324.5M323.9M322.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$313.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.02

10 shares is a claim on $313.02 of net worth that earned you −$22.91 and generated $11.92 of cash last year, against $7.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 56%FY22 38%FY23 23%FY24 16%FY25 -8%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.24 and $97.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$91.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.98B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$97.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.98B
Earnings Power Value
$68.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.12B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $97.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$97.82
Base0.0%$97.82
Bull5.0%$119.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001489393-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001489393-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001489393-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001489393-24-000012 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001489393-25-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001489393-26-000012 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001489393-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001489393-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001489393-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001489393-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001489393-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001489393-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001489393-23-000006 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001489393-24-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001489393-25-000008 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001489393-26-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001489393-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001489393-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001489393-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001489393-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)