LSB INDUSTRIES, INC.
LXUdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileThe thesis, from the filings
LSB INDUSTRIES, INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $556.2M1 | $901.7M2 | $593.7M3 | $522.4M3 | $615.2M3 |
| Net income | $43.5M4 | $230.3M5 | $27.9M6 | −$19.4M6 | $24.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $87.6M7 | $345.7M8 | $137.5M9 | $86.6M9 | $95.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $35.1M10 | $45.8M11 | $67.6M12 | $92.3M12 | $77.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $52.5M7 | $299.8M8 | $69.9M9 | −$5.72M9 | $18.1M9 |
| Total debt | $1.07B13 | $1.44B14 | $1.18B15 | $982.7M16 | $892.8M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $82.1M17 | $63.8M18 | $98.5M19 | $20.2M20 | $19.5M20 |
| Diluted shares | 50.0M | 86.0M | 75.1M | 72.0M | 72.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$123.38
10 shares is a claim on $71.86 of net worth that earned you $3.4 and generated $2.5 of cash last year, against $123.38 of debt.
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 14%FY23 4%FY24 0%FY25 3%
It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y
Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$18.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$18.1M
Earnings Power Value
$4
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$27.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.41
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027144 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076810 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027144 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029046 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076810 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027144 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076810 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027144 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076810 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004101 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027144 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076810 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004101 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027144 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076810 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)