MeritValue

LEXICON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

LXRXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LEXICON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about -108% on equity, but has diluted owners by 149% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$1.11M2$6M2$49.8M3
Net income−$87.8M4−$101.9M5−$177.1M6−$200.4M6−$50.3M6
Operating cash flow−$87M7−$88.9M8−$161.9M9−$178.8M9−$67.9M9
Capital expenditure$1.22M10$1.33M11$470,00012$1.03M12$012
Free cash flow (derived)−$88.2M7−$90.2M8−$162.4M9−$179.8M9−$67.9M9
Total debt$013$97.2M14$99.5M15$100.3M16$54M16
Cash & equivalents$64.1M17$46.3M18$22.5M19$66.7M20$34.3M20
Diluted shares145.7M165.7M221.1M320.0M363.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.39
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.49

10 shares is a claim on $2.96 of net worth that earned you −$1.39 and generated −$1.87 of cash last year, against $1.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-108% avg · 5y
FY21 -77%FY22 -87%FY23 -190%FY24 -137%FY25 -47%

It earned an average -108% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+149% shares · 5y

Share count is up 149% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062822-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062822-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001062822-26-000050 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062822-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062822-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062822-26-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062822-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062822-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062822-26-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062822-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062822-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062822-26-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062822-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062822-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062822-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062822-26-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062822-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062822-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062822-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062822-26-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)