MeritValue

LXP Industrial Trust

LXPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LXP Industrial Trust earns about 7% on invested capital, and has bought back 80% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $20.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.05M1$7.25M2$6.28M3$4.11M3$4.09M3
Net income$382.6M4$113.8M5$30.4M6$44.5M6$113.2M6
Operating cash flow$220.3M7$194.3M8$209.4M9$211.2M9$188.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt———$1.57B10$1.35B10
Cash & equivalents$190.9M11$54.4M12$199.2M12$101.8M12$170.4M12
Diluted shares287.4M282.5M58.2M58.3M58.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$347.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.32
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$230.75

10 shares is a claim on $347.76 of net worth that earned you $19.32 last year, against $230.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 6%FY23 4%FY24 1%FY25 4%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−80% shares · 5y

Share count is down 80% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$20.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$113.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001444838-24-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001444838-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000910108-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001444838-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001444838-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000910108-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001444838-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001444838-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000910108-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000910108-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001444838-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000910108-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)