MeritValue

LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC

LXFRdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7 and $37.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$374.1M1$423.4M2$405M3$391.9M3$384.6M3
Net income$29.9M4$26.9M5−$1.9M6$18.4M6$7.7M6
Operating cash flow$26.1M7$15.9M8$26.3M9$51.1M9$34M9
Capital expenditure$9.1M10$8.3M11$9.4M12$10.3M12$7.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$17M7$7.6M8$16.9M9$40.8M9$26.2M9
Total debt$119.2M13$187.4M14$149M15$93.3M16$103.8M16
Cash & equivalents$6.2M17$12.6M18$2.3M19$4.1M20$8.3M20
Diluted shares28.0M27.5M27.0M27.1M27.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$38.1

10 shares is a claim on $83.1 of net worth that earned you $2.83 and generated $9.62 of cash last year, against $38.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 9%FY23 -1%FY24 6%FY25 4%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7 and $37.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.5%
  • fcfBase$26.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$22.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.5%
  • fcfBase$26.2M
Earnings Power Value
$7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $22.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.23
Base15.5%$22.8
Bull20.0%$27.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096056-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096056-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096056-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096056-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096056-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096056-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096056-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096056-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096056-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096056-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096056-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096056-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096056-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096056-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096056-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001096056-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096056-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096056-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096056-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001096056-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)