LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.
LXdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'
LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.4 and $20.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.79B1 | $1.43B2 | $1.84B3 | $1.95B4 | $1.88B5 |
| Net income | $366.3M6 | $119.7M7 | $150.1M8 | $150.8M9 | $239.8M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $418.6M11 | $14.3M12 | $392.5M13 | $148.2M14 | $516.9M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $19.1M16 | $21.6M17 | $32.3M18 | $33.8M19 | $50.5M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $399.5M11 | −$7.25M12 | $360.2M13 | $114.3M14 | $466.4M15 |
| Total debt | — | $21.8M21 | $73.8M22 | $80.1M23 | $80.9M24 |
| Cash & equivalents | $386.3M25 | $210.4M26 | $359.6M27 | $322.3M28 | $308.3M28 |
| Diluted shares | 415.0M | 392.8M | 359.8M | 339.3M | 355.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $48.13 of net worth that earned you $6.75 and generated $13.13 of cash last year, against $2.28 of debt.
It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 271% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.4 and $20.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$360.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$360.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$150.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $15.13 |
| Base | 5.0% | $18.64 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $22.84 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014561 (Revenues)
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