LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.

LXdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.4 and $20.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.79B1$1.43B2$1.84B3$1.95B4$1.88B5
Net income$366.3M6$119.7M7$150.1M8$150.8M9$239.8M10
Operating cash flow$418.6M11$14.3M12$392.5M13$148.2M14$516.9M15
Capital expenditure$19.1M16$21.6M17$32.3M18$33.8M19$50.5M20
Free cash flow (derived)$399.5M11−$7.25M12$360.2M13$114.3M14$466.4M15
Total debt$21.8M21$73.8M22$80.1M23$80.9M24
Cash & equivalents$386.3M25$210.4M26$359.6M27$322.3M28$308.3M28
Diluted shares415.0M392.8M359.8M339.3M355.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$48.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.28

10 shares is a claim on $48.13 of net worth that earned you $6.75 and generated $13.13 of cash last year, against $2.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 12%FY23 14%FY24 12%FY25 16%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 271% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.4 and $20.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$360.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$360.2M
Earnings Power Value
$4.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$150.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.13
Base5.0%$18.64
Bull10.0%$22.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-006608 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014561 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-049424 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-055749 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-189256 (Revenues)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-006608 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014561 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-049424 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-055749 (ProfitLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-189256 (ProfitLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-006608 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014561 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-049424 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-055749 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-189256 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-006608 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014561 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-049424 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-055749 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-189256 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014561 (LongTermDebt)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-049424 (LongTermDebt)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-055749 (LongTermDebt)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-189256 (LongTermDebt)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014561 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-049424 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-055749 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  28. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-189256 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)