MeritValue

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.

LWdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.21 and $70.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$4.1B1$5.35B2$6.47B3$6.45B3$6.61B3
Net income$200.9M4$1.01B5$725.5M6$357.2M6$290M6
Operating cash flow$418.6M7$761.7M8$798.2M9$868.3M9$942.9M9
Capital expenditure$290.1M10$654M11$929.5M12$638.2M12$402.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$128.5M7$107.7M8−$131.3M9$230.1M9$540.2M9
Total debt—$160.6M13$4.16B14$4.14B15$3.92B16
Cash & equivalents$525M17$304.8M18$71.4M19$70.7M20$68.2M20
Diluted shares145.9M145.2M145.6M142.7M139.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$131.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$282.15

10 shares is a claim on $131.19 of net worth that earned you $20.85 and generated $38.84 of cash last year, against $282.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 80%FY24 12%FY25 6%FY26 5%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 2344% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.21 and $70.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$70.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$230.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$230.1M
Earnings Power Value
$26.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$357.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$4.09
Base20.0%$26.21
Bull20.0%$26.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001679273-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001679273-25-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001679273-26-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001679273-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001679273-25-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001679273-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001679273-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001679273-25-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001679273-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001679273-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001679273-25-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001679273-26-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001679273-24-000036 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001679273-24-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-25 · accession 0001679273-25-000049 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2026-05-31 · accession 0001679273-26-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0001558370-23-012203 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0001679273-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0001679273-25-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-25 · accession 0001679273-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)