MeritValue

LiveWire Group, Inc.

LVWRdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LiveWire Group, Inc. earns about -198% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35.8M1$46.8M2$38M3$26.6M3$25.7M3
Net income−$68.3M4−$78.9M5−$109.6M6−$93.9M6−$75.1M6
Operating cash flow−$74.5M7−$89.7M8−$83.5M9−$93.9M9−$53.5M9
Capital expenditure$9.95M10$14.1M11$13.5M12$8.07M12$3.81M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$84.5M7−$103.8M8−$96.9M9−$101.9M9−$57.4M9
Total debt———$013$75M13
Cash & equivalents$2.67M14$265.2M15$167.9M16$64.4M17$82.8M17
Diluted shares161.0M172.0M202.5M203.2M203.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.68

10 shares is a claim on $2.26 of net worth that earned you −$3.69 and generated −$2.82 of cash last year, against $3.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-198% avg · 5y
FY21 -312%FY22 -148%FY23 -228%FY24 -146%FY25 -154%

It earned an average -198% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001898795-24-000066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001898795-25-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898795-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001898795-24-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001898795-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898795-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001898795-24-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001898795-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898795-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001898795-24-000066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001898795-25-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898795-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001898795-26-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001898795-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001898795-24-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898795-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001898795-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)