LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP

LVSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP earns about 36% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.62 and $57.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.23B1$4.11B2$10.4B3$11.3B3$13B3
Net income−$961M4$1.83B5$1.22B6$1.45B6$1.63B6
Operating cash flow−$243M7−$944M8$3.23B9$3.2B9$3.02B9
Capital expenditure$828M10$651M11$1.02B12$1.57B12$1.17B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.07B7−$1.6B8$2.21B9$1.64B9$1.86B9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$1.85B13$6.31B14$5.11B15$3.65B16$3.84B16
Diluted shares764.0M764.0M765.0M737.0M693.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.77
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $22.94 of net worth that earned you $23.48 and generated $26.77 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
36% avg · 5y
FY21 -48%FY22 47%FY23 30%FY24 50%FY25 102%

It earned about 36% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.62 and $57.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.86B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$53.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.86B
Earnings Power Value
$21.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.45B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $53.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.79
Base5.0%$53.04
Bull10.0%$64.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001300514-24-000048 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001300514-25-000040 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001300514-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001300514-24-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001300514-25-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001300514-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001300514-24-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001300514-25-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001300514-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001300514-24-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001300514-25-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001300514-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001300514-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001300514-24-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001300514-25-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001300514-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)