MeritValue

Lulu's Fashion Lounge Holdings, Inc.

LVLUdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lulu's Fashion Lounge Holdings, Inc. earns about -700% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 86% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.09 and $7.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$375.6M1$439.7M2$355.2M3$315.9M3$282.3M3
Net income$2.05M4$3.73M5−$19.3M6−$55.3M6−$13.7M6
Operating cash flow$26.9M7$6.2M8$15.4M9$2.6M9$1.38M9
Capital expenditure$1.45M10$2.51M11$1.88M12$1.3M12$350,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$25.4M7$3.69M8$13.5M9$1.3M9$1.03M9
Total debt$25M13$25M14———
Cash & equivalents$11.4M15$10.2M15$2.51M16$4.46M17$2.66M17
Diluted shares20.2M38.9M2.7M2.8M2.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$48.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.68
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.77 of net worth that earned you −$48.98 and generated $3.68 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-700% avg · 5y
FY22 18%FY23 6%FY23 -26%FY24 -470%FY25 -3027%

It earned about -700% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−86% shares · 5y

Share count is down 86% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.09 and $7.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.59
Base0.0%$7.59
Bull5.0%$9.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001558370-24-002599 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001558370-25-003845 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036884 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001558370-24-002599 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001558370-25-003845 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036884 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001558370-24-002599 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001558370-25-003845 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036884 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001558370-24-002599 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001558370-25-003845 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036884 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001558370-22-004959 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001558370-23-003722 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001558370-24-002599 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003845 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001104659-26-036884 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)