MeritValue

Pulmonx Corp

LUNGdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Pulmonx Corp earns about -55% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.4M1$53.7M2$68.7M3$83.8M4$90.5M4
Net income−$48.7M5−$58.9M6−$60.8M7−$56.4M8−$54M8
Operating cash flow−$41.4M9−$45.1M10−$37.6M11−$31.5M12−$32.4M12
Capital expenditure$3.67M13$1.32M14$807,00015$1.45M16$452,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$45.1M9−$46.4M10−$38.4M11−$33M12−$32.8M12
Total debt$17.4M17$34.6M18$74.5M19$74.4M20$74.2M20
Cash & equivalents$148.5M21$101.7M22$83.5M23$70.9M24$69.8M24
Diluted shares36.1M37.1M38.0M39.1M40.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.27
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.23

10 shares is a claim on $13.3 of net worth that earned you −$13.27 and generated −$8.07 of cash last year, against $18.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-55% avg · 5y
FY21 -60%FY22 -52%FY23 -41%FY24 -49%FY25 -72%

It earned an average -55% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 326% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001127537-23-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001127537-24-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001127537-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001127537-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001127537-23-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001127537-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001127537-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001127537-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001127537-23-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001127537-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001127537-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001127537-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001127537-23-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001127537-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001127537-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001127537-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001127537-22-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001127537-24-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001127537-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001127537-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001127537-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001127537-24-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001127537-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001127537-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)