MeritValue

Lumen Technologies, Inc.

LUMNdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lumen Technologies, Inc. earns about -620% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.94 and $6.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.8B1$16.1B2$13.5B3$12.1B3$11.3B3
Net income$2.03B4−$1.55B5−$10.3B6−$55M6−$1.74B6
Operating cash flow$6.5B7$4.74B8$2.16B9$4.33B9$4.74B9
Capital expenditure$2.9B10$3.02B11$3.1B12$3.23B12$4.37B12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.6B7$1.72B8−$940M9$1.1B9$371M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$354M13$1.25B14$2.23B15$1.89B15$1B15
Diluted shares1.07B1.01B983.1M987.7M994.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$11.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$11.23 of net worth that earned you −$17.49 and generated $3.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-620% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 -15%FY23 -2470%FY24 -12%FY25 —

It earned about -620% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.94 and $6.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$371M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$371M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.34
Base0.0%$6.34
Bull5.0%$7.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018926-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018926-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018926-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018926-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018926-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018926-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018926-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018926-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018926-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018926-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018926-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018926-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018926-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018926-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018926-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)