MeritValue

lululemon athletica inc.

LULUdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

lululemon athletica inc. earns about 63% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $134.92 and $808.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$6.26B1$8.11B2$9.62B3$10.6B3$11.1B3
Net income$975.3M4$854.8M5$1.55B6$1.81B6$1.58B6
Operating cash flow$1.39B7$966.5M8$2.3B9$2.27B9$1.6B9
Capital expenditure$394.5M10$638.7M11$651.9M12$689.2M12$680.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$994.6M7$327.8M8$1.64B9$1.58B9$921.7M9
Total debt$013$014$015$016—
Cash & equivalents$1.26B17$1.15B18$2.24B18$1.98B18$1.81B18
Diluted shares130.3M128.0M127.1M123.9M119.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$416.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$132.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$77.41
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $416.72 of net worth that earned you $132.63 and generated $77.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
63% avg · 5y
FY22 66%FY23 43%FY24 78%FY25 78%FY26 50%

It earned about 63% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $134.92 and $808.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$808.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.58B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$448.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.58B
Earnings Power Value
$134.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.55B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$111.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $448.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$205.19
Base20.0%$448.77
Bull20.0%$448.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001397187-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001397187-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001397187-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001397187-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001397187-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001397187-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001397187-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001397187-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001397187-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001397187-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001397187-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001397187-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001397187-22-000014 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001397187-23-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001397187-24-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-02 · accession 0001397187-25-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001397187-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001397187-26-000020 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)