Luda Technology Group Ltd

LUDdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Luda Technology Group Ltd earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.57 and $0.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$49.9M1$51.4M2$44.9M2$33.5M2
Net income$3.07M3$3.03M4−$361,0164$556,8294
Operating cash flow−$1M5$3.33M6$5.46M6−$1.71M6
Capital expenditure$460,3787$1.76M8$1.08M8$458,2218
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.46M5$1.57M6$4.38M6−$2.17M6
Total debt$11.2M9$12.3M10$12.7M10
Cash & equivalents$4.12M11$8.08M12$8.13M12$4.52M12
Diluted shares20.0M20.0M20.0M22.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.7

10 shares is a claim on $9.98 of net worth that earned you $0.25 and generated −$0.97 of cash last year, against $5.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 4y
FY22 32%FY23 17%FY24 2%FY25 3%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 4y

Share count is up 11% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 14% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.57 and $0.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.57M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.57M
Earnings Power Value
$0.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.79M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.64
Base0.0%$0.64
Bull5.0%$0.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037162 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057512 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037162 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057512 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037162 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057512 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037162 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057512 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037162 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057512 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037162 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057512 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)