MeritValue

Lucid Diagnostics Inc.

LUCDdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Lucid Diagnostics Inc. earns about -3387% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 448% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$500,0001$377,0002$2.43M3$4.35M3$4.71M4
Net income−$28.1M5−$56.2M6−$52.7M7−$45.5M8−$58M8
Operating cash flow−$17.7M9−$29.7M10−$32.8M11−$44.1M12−$46.5M12
Capital expenditure$862,00013$3.2M14—$296,00015$197,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$18.5M9−$32.9M10—−$44.4M12−$46.7M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$53.7M16$22.5M17$18.9M18$22.4M18—
Diluted shares18.6M36.2M41.8M50.5M101.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.58
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.07 of net worth that earned you −$5.69 and generated −$4.58 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3387% avg · 5y
FY21 -2000%FY22 -7743%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -419%

It earned an average -3387% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+448% shares · 5y

Share count is up 448% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007482 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011161 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000205 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009805 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007482 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011161 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000205 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009805 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007482 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000205 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009805 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-009199 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011161 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009805 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007482 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000205 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)