MeritValue

LANTRONIX INC

LTRXdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LANTRONIX INC earns about -9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.25 and $3.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$71.5M1$129.7M2$131.2M3$160.3M4$122.9M4
Net income−$4.04M5−$5.36M6−$8.98M7−$4.52M8−$11.4M8
Operating cash flow$4.3M9−$9.42M10$237,00011$18.6M12$7.29M12
Capital expenditure$783,00013$2.12M14$2.67M15$1.48M16$505,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$3.52M9−$11.5M10−$2.44M11$17.1M12$6.78M12
Total debt$5.15M17$17.6M18$21.7M19$19.2M20$14.8M20
Cash & equivalents$9.74M21$17.2M22$13.5M23$26.2M24$20.1M24
Diluted shares28.7M32.7M36.3M37.4M38.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.84

10 shares is a claim on $19.26 of net worth that earned you −$2.95 and generated $1.76 of cash last year, against $3.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -9%FY23 -9%FY24 -5%FY25 -14%

It earned about -9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 188% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.25 and $3.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.78M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.78M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.65
Base5.0%$3.25
Bull10.0%$3.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006386 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006264 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-006532 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006386 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006264 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-006532 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006386 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006264 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-006532 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006109 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006386 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006264 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-006532 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006109 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006386 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006264 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-006532 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001683168-22-006109 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001683168-23-006386 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001683168-24-006264 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001683168-25-006532 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)