LATAM AIRLINES GROUP S.A.
LTMdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
LATAM AIRLINES GROUP S.A. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 94591% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.02 and $0.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.88B1 | $9.36B2 | $11.6B3 | $12.8B3 | $14.3B3 |
| Net income | −$4.65B4 | $1.34B5 | $581.8M6 | $977M6 | $1.46B6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$174.2M7 | $96.8M8 | $2.26B9 | $3.11B9 | $3.74B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $597.1M10 | $780.5M11 | $795.8M12 | $1.33B12 | $1.78B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$771.3M7 | −$683.7M8 | $1.47B9 | $1.78B9 | $1.96B9 |
| Total debt | $14.3B13 | $7.41B13 | $6.94B14 | $7.15B14 | $8.09B14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.05B15 | $1.22B16 | $1.71B16 | $1.96B16 | $2.15B16 |
| Diluted shares | 606.4M | 605.23B | 604.44B | 604.44B | 574.22B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $0.02 of net worth that earned you $0.03 and generated $0.03 of cash last year, against $0.14 of debt.
It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 94591% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.02 and $0.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.78B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.78B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$977M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.03 |
| Base | 5.0% | $0.04 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $0.06 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006398 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012639 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047716-26-000046 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006398 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012639 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047716-26-000046 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006398 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012639 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047716-26-000046 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006398 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012639 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047716-26-000046 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019107 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001047716-26-000046 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012639 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001047716-26-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalents)