MeritValue

Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.

LTHdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.32B1$1.82B2$2.22B3$2.62B3$3B3
Net income−$579.4M4−$1.79M5$76.1M6$156.2M6$373.7M6
Operating cash flow−$20M7$201M8$463M9$575.1M9$870.5M9
Capital expenditure$328.9M10$591.2M11$698M12$524.5M12$891.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$348.9M7−$390.2M8−$235M9$50.6M9−$21M9
Total debt$3.6B13$3.64B14$3.87B15$3.07B16$3.02B16
Cash & equivalents$31.6M17$25.5M18$11.2M19$10.9M20$204.8M20
Diluted shares155.5M193.6M204.0M211.2M225.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$138.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.57
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$133.73

10 shares is a claim on $138.64 of net worth that earned you $16.57 and generated −$0.93 of cash last year, against $133.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 -13%FY22 -2%FY23 -0%FY24 3%FY25 6%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$76.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001869198-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001869198-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001869198-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001869198-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001869198-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001869198-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001869198-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001869198-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001869198-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001869198-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001869198-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001869198-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001869198-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001869198-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001869198-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001869198-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001869198-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001869198-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001869198-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001869198-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)