MeritValue

Latch, Inc.

LTCHdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Latch, Inc. earns about -88% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 85% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.6M1$43M1$45M2$56.6M3$70.1M3
Net income−$167.1M4−$162.3M4−$107.5M5−$57.6M6−$53.7M6
Operating cash flow−$106.5M7−$135.2M7−$65.6M8−$75.4M9−$35.9M9
Capital expenditure$1.54M10$2.24M10$327,00011$766,00012$79,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$108.1M7−$137.5M7−$65.9M8−$76.2M9−$36M9
Total debt——$44M13$11.7M14$9.29M14
Cash & equivalents$124.8M15$109.8M16$94.7M17$70.2M18$34.6M18
Diluted shares86.5M143.6M149.6M156.7M160.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.35
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.58

10 shares is a claim on $3.62 of net worth that earned you −$3.35 and generated −$2.24 of cash last year, against $0.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-88% avg · 5y
FY21 -55%FY22 -98%FY23 -72%FY24 -86%FY25 -130%

It earned an average -88% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+85% shares · 5y

Share count is up 85% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 79% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001826000-26-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001826000-26-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001826000-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001826000-26-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001826000-26-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001826000-24-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001826000-25-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001826000-26-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)