MeritValue

LTC PROPERTIES INC

LTCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LTC PROPERTIES INC earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.26 and $29.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$155.3M1$175.2M2$197.2M3$209.8M3$262.9M3
Net income$55.9M4$100M5$89.7M6$91M6$118M6
Operating cash flow$91.2M7$105.6M8$104.5M9$125.9M9$136M9
Capital expenditure$6.3M10$8.99M11$9.69M12$13.7M12$7.27M12
Free cash flow (derived)$84.9M7$96.6M8$94.8M9$112.2M9$128.7M9
Total debt$722.7M13$767.9M14$891.3M15$684.6M16$842.2M16
Cash & equivalents$5.16M17$10.4M18$20.3M19$9.41M20$14.4M20
Diluted shares39.2M40.1M41.4M44.2M46.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$230.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$180.88

10 shares is a claim on $230.88 of net worth that earned you $25.34 and generated $27.64 of cash last year, against $180.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 2%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 17% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.26 and $29.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.1%
  • fcfBase$112.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.1%
  • fcfBase$112.2M
Earnings Power Value
$20.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$91M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.65
Base5.1%$25.2
Bull10.1%$35.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001256 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001395 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019178 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001256 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001395 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019178 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001256 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001395 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019178 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001256 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001395 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019178 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001423 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001256 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001395 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019178 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001423 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001256 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001395 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019178 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)