MeritValue

LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC

LSTRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC earns about 53% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $78.92 and $117.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.54B1$7.44B2$5.3B3$4.82B3$4.74B3
Net income$381.5M4$430.9M5$264.4M6$195.9M6$115M6
Operating cash flow$276.7M7$622.7M8$393.6M9$286.6M9$224.9M9
Capital expenditure$23.3M10$26M11$25.7M12$31M12$9.88M12
Free cash flow (derived)$253.5M7$596.7M8$368M9$255.6M9$215M9
Total debt$013$014$015$016$016
Cash & equivalents$215.5M17$339.6M18$481M19$515M20$396.7M20
Diluted shares38.2M36.6M35.9M35.5M34.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$229.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $229.19 of net worth that earned you $33.13 and generated $61.93 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
53% avg · 5y
FY21 59%FY22 79%FY23 53%FY24 44%FY25 30%

It earned about 53% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $78.92 and $117.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$110.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$255.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$117.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$255.6M
Earnings Power Value
$78.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$264.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $117.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$116.6
Base0.3%$117.88
Bull5.3%$143.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001193125-24-044902 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-033543 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-064756 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001193125-24-044902 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-033543 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-064756 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001193125-24-044902 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-033543 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-064756 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001193125-24-044902 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-033543 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-064756 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001193125-23-048874 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044902 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-25-033543 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-064756 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001193125-23-048874 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-044902 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-25-033543 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-064756 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)