MeritValue

Laird Superfood, Inc.

LSFdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Laird Superfood, Inc. earns about -173% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$36.8M1$35.8M2$34.2M3$43.3M4$49.9M4
Net income−$23.9M5−$40.3M6−$10.2M7−$1.82M8−$3.25M8
Operating cash flow−$22.1M9−$14.3M10−$10.8M11$865,50212−$2.79M12
Capital expenditure$1.56M13$1.15M14$144,02315$24,77616$76,45516
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.7M9−$15.5M10−$10.9M11$840,72612−$2.86M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$22.9M17$17.3M18$7.57M19$8.34M20$5.11M20
Diluted shares9.0M9.1M9.3M9.9M10.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.08
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.71
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.86 of net worth that earned you −$3.08 and generated −$2.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-173% avg · 5y
FY21 -48%FY22 -611%FY23 -137%FY24 -29%FY25 -40%

It earned an average -173% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008473 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007658 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005236 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010369 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008473 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007658 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005236 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010369 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008473 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007658 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005236 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010369 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008473 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007658 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005236 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010369 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008473 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007658 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005236 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010369 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)