MeritValue

LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP

LSCCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.19 and $14.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$515.3M1$660.4M2$737.2M3$509.4M3$523.3M3
Net income$95.9M4$178.9M5$259.1M6$61.1M6$3.08M6
Operating cash flow$167.7M7$238.8M8$269.6M9$140.9M9$175.1M9
Capital expenditure$9.84M10$23.3M11$20.1M12$21M12$42.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$157.9M7$215.5M8$249.5M9$119.9M9$132.6M9
Total debt$316.7M13$128.8M14$014——
Cash & equivalents$131.6M15$145.7M16$128.3M17$136.3M18$133.9M18
Diluted shares142.1M140.7M139.8M138.3M138.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $51.65 of net worth that earned you $0.22 and generated $9.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY22 17%FY22 39%FY23 39%FY24 6%FY26 1%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.19 and $14.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$132.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$132.6M
Earnings Power Value
$7.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$95.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.67
Base0.0%$14.67
Bull5.0%$17.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001437749-24-004522 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-003987 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004100 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001437749-24-004522 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-003987 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001437749-24-004522 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-003987 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001437749-24-004522 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-003987 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004100 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001437749-23-003778 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004522 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001437749-23-003778 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004522 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-25-003987 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001437749-26-004100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)