Stride, Inc.
LRNdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileStride, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.16 and $339.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.54B1 | $1.69B2 | $1.84B3 | $2.04B3 | $2.41B3 |
| Net income | $71.5M4 | $107.1M5 | $126.9M6 | $204.2M6 | $287.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $134.2M7 | $206.9M8 | $203.2M9 | $278.8M9 | $432.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.57M10 | $9.75M11 | $4.34M12 | $2.27M12 | $1.78M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $130.6M7 | $197.1M8 | $198.8M9 | $276.5M9 | $431M9 |
| Total debt | $598.5M13 | $822.9M14 | $826.1M15 | $829.4M16 | $832.6M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $386.1M17 | $389.4M17 | $410.8M18 | $500.6M19 | $782.5M19 |
| Diluted shares | 41.9M | 42.4M | 42.7M | 43.5M | 48.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $305.62 of net worth that earned you $59.48 and generated $89.03 of cash last year, against $171.99 of debt.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.16 and $339.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$276.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$276.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$126.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $80.57 |
| Base | 20.0% | $185.19 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $185.19 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-012941 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)