Stride, Inc.

LRNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Stride, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.02 and $526.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.69B1$1.84B2$2.04B3$2.41B3$2.52B3
Net income$107.1M4$126.9M5$204.2M6$287.9M6$338.2M6
Operating cash flow$206.9M7$203.2M8$278.8M9$432.8M9$433.8M9
Capital expenditure$9.75M10$4.34M11$2.27M12$1.78M12$587,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$197.1M7$198.8M8$276.5M9$431M9$433.2M9
Total debt$822.9M13$826.1M14$829.4M15$832.6M16$836M16
Cash & equivalents$389.4M17$410.8M18$500.6M19$782.5M20$754.5M20
Diluted shares42.4M42.7M43.5M48.4M47.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$344.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$91.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$176.62

10 shares is a claim on $344.86 of net worth that earned you $71.45 and generated $91.53 of cash last year, against $176.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY22 9%FY23 9%FY24 14%FY25 19%FY26 20%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.02 and $526.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$526.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$431M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$288.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$431M
Earnings Power Value
$44.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$204.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$79.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.08%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $288.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$125.55
Base20.0%$288.19
Bull20.0%$288.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-090515 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-090515 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-090515 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-090515 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-090515 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-011134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-010334 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-090515 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)