LAM RESEARCH CORP
LRCXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'
LAM RESEARCH CORP earns about 40% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 797% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.26 and $150.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B1 | $17.4B2 | $14.9B3 | $18.4B3 | $23.2B3 |
| Net income | $4.61B4 | $4.51B5 | $3.83B6 | $5.36B6 | $7.27B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $3.1B7 | $5.18B8 | $4.65B9 | $6.17B9 | $5.86B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $546M10 | $501.6M11 | $396.7M12 | $759.2M12 | $966.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $2.55B7 | $4.68B8 | $4.26B9 | $5.41B9 | $4.89B9 |
| Total debt | $9.92B13 | $9.93B14 | $9.93B15 | $8.94B16 | $7.44B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $3.52B17 | $5.34B18 | $5.85B19 | $6.39B19 | $5.58B19 |
| Diluted shares | 140.6M | 1.36B | 1.32B | 1.29B | 1.26B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $98.89 of net worth that earned you $57.61 and generated $38.79 of cash last year, against $59.03 of debt.
It earned about 40% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 797% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.26 and $150.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth14.7%
- fcfBase$4.89B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth14.7%
- fcfBase$4.89B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$4.61B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $52.73 |
| Base | 14.7% | $98.96 |
| Bull | 19.7% | $120.71 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 14.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000707549-24-000106 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000707549-25-000075 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000707549-26-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000707549-24-000106 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000707549-25-000075 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000707549-26-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000707549-24-000106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000707549-25-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000707549-26-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000707549-24-000106 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000707549-25-000075 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000707549-26-000037 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000707549-23-000102 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000707549-24-000106 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000707549-25-000075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-29 · accession 0000707549-26-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000707549-24-000106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000707549-25-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000707549-26-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)