MeritValue

LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC

LQDTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC earns about 80% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.98 and $92.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$257.5M1$280.1M2$314.5M3$363.3M3$476.7M3
Net income$50.9M4$40.3M5$21M6$20M6$28.1M6
Operating cash flow$65.4M7$44.8M8$47M9$70.2M9$66.8M9
Capital expenditure$5.42M10$8.12M11$5.39M12$8.91M12$7.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$60M7$36.7M8$41.6M9$61.3M9$59M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$106.3M13$96.1M14$110.3M14$153.2M14$174.6M14
Diluted shares35.0M33.7M32.1M31.6M32.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.19
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $62.71 of net worth that earned you $8.67 and generated $18.19 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
80% avg · 5y
FY21 98%FY22 69%FY23 45%FY24 78%FY25 109%

It earned about 80% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.98 and $92.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$92.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.1%
  • fcfBase$59M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.1%
  • fcfBase$59M
Earnings Power Value
$8.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$28.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.38
Base17.1%$58.38
Bull20.0%$64.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068822 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135700 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289159 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068822 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135700 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289159 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068822 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135700 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068822 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135700 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289159 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135700 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289159 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)