MeritValue

LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORP

LPXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORP earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 29% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.4 and $62.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.92B1$3.85B2$2.58B3$2.94B3$2.71B3
Net income$1.38B4$1.09B5$178M6$420M6$146M6
Operating cash flow$1.48B7$1.14B8$316M9$605M9$382M9
Capital expenditure$254M10$414M11$300M12$183M12$291M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.23B7$730M8$16M9$422M9$91M9
Total debt$692M13$692M14$694M15$696M16$696M16
Cash & equivalents$358M17$369M18$222M19$340M20$292M20
Diluted shares98.0M78.0M72.0M71.0M70.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$247.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$13
Debt you’d be carrying
$99.43

10 shares is a claim on $247.29 of net worth that earned you $20.86 and generated $13 of cash last year, against $99.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 84%FY22 51%FY23 9%FY24 21%FY25 7%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−29% shares · 5y

Share count is down 29% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.4 and $62.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$91M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$91M
Earnings Power Value
$62.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$420M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.8
Base0.0%$12.8
Bull5.0%$17.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004714 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060519-25-000005 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060519-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004714 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060519-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060519-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004714 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060519-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060519-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004714 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000060519-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060519-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004259 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004714 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060519-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000060519-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004259 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004714 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000060519-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000060519-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)