MeritValue

Open Lending Corp

LPROdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Open Lending Corp earns about 6% on invested capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$215.7M1$179.6M2$117.5M3$24M3$93.2M3
Net income$146.1M4$66.6M5$22.1M6−$135M6−$4.24M6
Operating cash flow$95.2M7$107.4M8$82.7M9$17.6M9−$3.19M9
Capital expenditure$111,00010$238,00011$123,00012$165,00012$56,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$95M7,10$107.2M8,11$82.5M9,12$17.4M9,12−$3.25M9,12
Total debt$292.5M13,14,15$294.9M13,16,17$288.1M18,19,20$279.4M21,22,23$169.5M21,22,23
Cash & equivalents$116.5M24$204.5M25$240.2M26$243.2M27$176.6M27
Diluted shares126.4M126.3M121.5M119.2M118.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.36
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.29

10 shares is a claim on $6.32 of net worth that earned you −$0.36 and generated −$0.27 of cash last year, against $14.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 23%FY23 12%FY24 -45%FY25 -6%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K filed 2023-02-28 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-23-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K filed 2023-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-23-000033 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K filed 2023-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-23-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  20. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  22. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  23. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  24. 10-K filed 2023-02-28 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 10-K filed 2024-02-28 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 10-K filed 2025-03-31 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 10-K filed 2026-03-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)