MeritValue

Open Lending Corp

LPROdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Open Lending Corp earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.93 and $2.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$215.7M1$179.6M2$117.5M3$24M3$93.2M3
Net income$146.1M4$66.6M5$22.1M6−$135M6−$4.24M6
Operating cash flow$95.2M7$107.4M8$82.7M9$17.6M9−$3.19M9
Capital expenditure$111,00010$238,00011$123,00012$165,00012$56,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$95M7$107.2M8$82.5M9$17.4M9−$3.25M9
Total debt$292.5M13$294.9M13$288.1M14$279.4M15$169.5M15
Cash & equivalents$116.5M16$204.5M17$240.2M18$243.2M19$176.6M19
Diluted shares126.4M126.3M121.5M119.2M118.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.36
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.29

10 shares is a claim on $6.32 of net worth that earned you −$0.36 and generated −$0.27 of cash last year, against $14.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 23%FY23 12%FY24 -45%FY25 -6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.93 and $2.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
Earnings Power Value
$1.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$22.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.16
Base0.0%$2.16
Bull5.0%$2.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-23-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001806201-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001806201-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001806201-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001806201-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)