DORIAN LPG LTD.

LPGdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

DORIAN LPG LTD. earns about 17% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.93 and $51.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$274.2M1$389.7M1$560.7M2$353.3M2$481.5M2
Net income$71.9M3$172.4M4$307.4M5$90.2M5$193.7M5
Operating cash flow$118.7M6$224.1M7$388.4M8$173M8$210.1M8
Capital expenditure$23.2M9$68.8M9
Free cash flow (derived)$95.5M6$155.3M7
Total debt$1.33B10$1.31B11$1.21B12$1.11B13$1.12B13
Cash & equivalents$236.8M14$148.8M15$282.5M16$316.9M16$327.4M16
Diluted shares40.4M40.2M40.5M42.2M42.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$267.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.45
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying
$263.01

10 shares is a claim on $267.28 of net worth that earned you $45.45 last year, against $263.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
17% avg · 5y
FY22 8%FY23 20%FY24 30%FY25 9%FY26 17%

It earned about 17% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.93 and $51.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$155.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$155.3M
Earnings Power Value
$41.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$172.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.44
Base5.0%$46.05
Bull10.0%$61.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001596993-23-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001596993-26-000025 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001596993-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001596993-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001596993-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001596993-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001596993-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001596993-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001596993-23-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001596993-23-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001596993-24-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001596993-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001596993-26-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001596993-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001596993-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001596993-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)