MeritValue

Lipocine Inc.

LPCNdata completeness 75%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lipocine Inc. earns about -38% on invested capital, and has bought back 93% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.1M1$500,0001−$2.85M2$11.2M3$1.98M3
Net income−$634,3994−$10.8M5−$16.4M6$8,3527−$9.63M7
Operating cash flow−$4.41M8−$12M9−$11.9M10−$1.22M11−$9.76M11
Capital expenditure$7,59112$133,83113$13,16714$90,08615—
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.42M8−$12.1M9−$11.9M10−$1.31M11—
Total debt$3.98M16————
Cash & equivalents$2.95M17$3.15M18$4.77M19$6.21M20$5.21M20
Diluted shares87.6M5.3M5.3M5.4M5.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.87
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $25.36 of net worth that earned you −$16.87 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-38% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 -26%FY23 -83%FY24 0%FY25 -82%

It earned an average -38% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−93% shares · 5y

Share count is down 93% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007178 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010146 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009411 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007178 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009127 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010146 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009411 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007178 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009127 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010146 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009411 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007178 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009127 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010146 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009411 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-006353 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007178 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-010146 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009411 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)