MeritValue

LOWES COMPANIES INC

LOWdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LOWES COMPANIES INC earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $111.16 and $128.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$96.3B1$97.1B2$86.4B3$83.7B3$86.3B3
Net income$8.44B4$6.44B5$7.73B6$6.96B6$6.65B6
Operating cash flow$10.1B7$8.59B8$8.14B9$9.63B9$9.86B9
Capital expenditure$1.85B10$1.83B11$1.96B12$1.93B12$2.21B12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.26B7$6.76B8$6.18B9$7.7B9$7.65B9
Total debt$24.3B13$34.3B14$35.8B15$35.3B16$39.8B17
Cash & equivalents$1.13B18$1.35B19$921M20$1.76B21$982M21
Diluted shares699.0M631.0M584.0M568.0M560.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$177.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$118.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$136.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$711.05

10 shares is a claim on −$177.09 of net worth that earned you $118.82 and generated $136.63 of cash last year, against $711.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
36% avg · 5y
FY22 46%FY23 34%FY24 39%FY25 36%FY26 23%

It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 64% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $111.16 and $128.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$111.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.65B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$125.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.65B
Earnings Power Value
$128.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.96B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $125.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$125.85
Base0.0%$125.85
Bull5.0%$173.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000060667-24-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0000060667-25-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000060667-26-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000060667-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0000060667-25-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000060667-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000060667-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0000060667-25-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000060667-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000060667-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0000060667-25-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000060667-26-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000060667-22-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0000060667-23-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000060667-24-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000060667-25-000049 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-30 · accession 0000060667-26-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0000060667-23-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0000060667-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0000060667-25-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000060667-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)