MeritValue

Lotus Technology Inc.

LOTdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lotus Technology Inc. earns about -57% on equity, but has diluted owners by 94% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.69M1$9.56M2$679M3$924.3M3$519.1M3
Net income−$110.5M4−$723.9M5−$742M6−$1.1B6−$464.2M6
Operating cash flow−$126.5M7−$351.4M8−$386.9M9−$848.5M9−$333.9M9
Capital expenditure$34.6M10$133.3M11$213.7M12$57.3M12$79.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$161.1M7−$484.8M8−$600.6M9−$905.9M9−$413.3M9
Total debt$126.4M13$455.9M14$1.14B15$1.01B16$1.52B17
Cash & equivalents$531.5M18$736.6M19$418.9M20$103.1M20$73.4M20
Diluted shares334.1M475.8M474.6M645.2M648.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$20.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.16
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$23.46

10 shares is a claim on −$20.39 of net worth that earned you −$7.16 and generated −$6.37 of cash last year, against $23.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-57% avg · 5y
FY21 -57%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -57% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+94% shares · 5y

Share count is up 94% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1103% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050310 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050310 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050310 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050028 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001020 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050310 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001020 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050310 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050310 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050310 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)