Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
LOPEdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileGrand Canyon Education, Inc. earns about 43% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 36% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $79.94 and $125.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $896.6M1 | $911.3M2 | $960.9M3 | $1.03B3 | $1.11B3 |
| Net income | $260.3M4 | $184.7M5 | $205M6 | $226.2M6 | $216.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $313.1M7 | $220.8M8 | $243.7M9 | $290M9 | $273.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $28.9M10 | $35.2M11 | $44.5M12 | $37.2M12 | $34.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $284.2M7 | $185.6M8 | $199.1M9 | $252.7M9 | $238.6M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $600.9M13 | $120.4M14 | $146.5M15 | $324.6M16 | $111.8M16 |
| Diluted shares | 44.0M | 32.2M | 30.1M | 29.3M | 28.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $266.53 of net worth that earned you $77.14 and generated $85.16 of cash last year.
It earned about 43% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 36% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $79.94 and $125.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$238.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$238.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$216.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $125.66 |
| Base | 0.0% | $125.66 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $155.11 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001150 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001060 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001150 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017047 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001150 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001060 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001150 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017047 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001452 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001150 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)