MeritValue

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

LOCOdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.05 and $10.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$454.4M1$470M2$468.7M3$473M3$490M3
Net income$29.1M4$20.8M5$25.6M6$25.7M6$26.5M6
Operating cash flow$52.1M7$38.5M8$40.7M9$46.8M9$48.1M9
Capital expenditure$17M10$19.9M11$21.3M12$19.1M12$22.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$35.1M7$18.6M8$19.4M9$27.7M9$25.4M9
Total debt$40M13$66M14$84M15$71M16$51M17
Cash & equivalents$30M18$20.5M19$7.29M20$2.48M21$6.23M21
Diluted shares36.4M36.6M34.4M30.0M29.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$99.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.35

10 shares is a claim on $99.02 of net worth that earned you $9.01 and generated $8.65 of cash last year, against $17.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 7%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 27% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.05 and $10.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$25.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$25.4M
Earnings Power Value
$9.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.84
Base0.0%$10.84
Bull5.0%$13.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001606366-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001606366-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001606366-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001606366-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001606366-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001606366-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001606366-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001606366-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001606366-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001606366-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001606366-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001606366-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001606366-22-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001606366-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001606366-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-25 · accession 0001606366-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001606366-26-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001606366-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001606366-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001606366-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-25 · accession 0001606366-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)