MeritValue

LOBO TECHNOLOGIES LTD.

LOBOdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LOBO TECHNOLOGIES LTD. earns about 11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 63% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.1M1$18.3M2$15.5M3$21.2M3$23.2M3
Net income$1.65M4$1.07M5$969,5986−$812,8366−$5.48M6
Operating cash flow$1.79M7−$1.18M8−$1.42M9−$2.94M9−$1.7M9
Capital expenditure$10,97410$777,99411$314,19712$325,25712$427,09912
Free cash flow (derived)$1.78M7−$1.96M8−$1.73M9−$3.26M9−$2.13M9
Total debt—$202,98113$140,84714$369,29015$3.06M15
Cash & equivalents$614,00816$182,82917$470,33517$1.38M17$908,34117
Diluted shares6.4M6.4M6.4M7.5M10.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.94

10 shares is a claim on $6.69 of net worth that earned you −$5.25 and generated −$2.04 of cash last year, against $2.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 67%FY22 23%FY23 19%FY24 -7%FY25 -46%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+63% shares · 5y

Share count is up 63% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1409% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$969,598
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017222 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-018174 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-019360 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017222 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-018174 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-019360 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017222 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-018174 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-019360 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017222 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-018174 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-019360 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017222 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-018174 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-019360 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-018174 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-019360 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)