Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
LOBdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on fileLive Oak Bancshares, Inc. earns about 90% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.83 and $76.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $361.2M1 | $444.5M2 | $688.3M3 | $812.4M3 | $908.5M3 |
| Net income | $167M4 | $176.2M5 | $73.9M6 | $77.5M6 | $105.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$119.7M7 | −$300.7M8 | $184.9M9 | $156.8M9 | $158.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.08M10 | $43.8M11 | $46.8M12 | $49.3M12 | $14.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$122.8M7 | −$344.5M8 | $138.1M9 | $107.5M9 | $143.5M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $203.8M13 | $416.6M14 | $582.5M14 | $608.8M14 | $864.9M14 |
| Diluted shares | 45.1M | 44.9M | 45.1M | 45.8M | 46.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $271.46 of net worth that earned you $22.99 and generated $31.16 of cash last year.
It earned about 90% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.83 and $76.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$138.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$138.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$105.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $61.63 |
| Base | 5.0% | $72 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $84.4 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462120-24-000014 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462120-25-000105 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001462120-26-000020 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462120-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462120-25-000105 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001462120-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462120-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462120-25-000105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001462120-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462120-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462120-25-000105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001462120-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001462120-25-000105 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001462120-26-000020 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)