MeritValue

Loar Holdings Inc.

LOARdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Loar Holdings Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 46906% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2,402.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$317.5M1$402.8M1$496.3M1
Net income−$4.62M2$22.2M2$72.1M2
Operating cash flow$12.8M3$55M3$112.3M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt$1.07B4$554.6M5$1.43B5
Cash & equivalents$21.5M6$54.1M7$84.8M7
Diluted shares20491,68495,893

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$122,506.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7,523.59
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$149,270.54

10 shares is a claim on $122,506.65 of net worth that earned you $7,523.59 last year, against $149,270.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 3y
FY23 2%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+46906% shares · 3y

Share count is up 46906% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 34% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$2,402.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$22.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$454.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002000178-26-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002000178-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002000178-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047242 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002000178-26-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002000178-26-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)