MANHATTAN BRIDGE CAPITAL, INC

LOANdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MANHATTAN BRIDGE CAPITAL, INC earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.72 and $5.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.81M1$8.57M2$9.8M3$9.69M4$8.67M4
Net income$4.42M5$5.21M6$5.48M7$5.59M8$5.11M8
Operating cash flow$4.6M9$5.17M10$5.4M11$4.93M12$4.93M12
Capital expenditure$2,87113$5,08514$4,01815$41815
Free cash flow (derived)$5.16M10$5.39M11$4.93M12$4.93M12
Total debt$7.23M16$6.25M16
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares10.5M11.5M11.5M11.4M11.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$37.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.46

10 shares is a claim on $37.68 of net worth that earned you $4.47 and generated $4.31 of cash last year, against $5.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 12%FY23 18%FY24 16%FY25 14%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.72 and $5.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.93M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.93M
Earnings Power Value
$4.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.21M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.61
Base0.0%$5.61
Bull5.0%$7.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007249 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009478 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009931 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013241 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007249 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009478 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009931 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013241 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007249 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009478 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009931 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013241 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009478 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009931 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013241 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013241 (ShortTermBorrowings)