MeritValue

Lantheus Holdings, Inc.

LNTHdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lantheus Holdings, Inc. earns about 107% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.36 and $313.76 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$425.2M1$935.1M2$1.3B3$1.53B3$1.54B3
Net income−$71.3M4$28.1M5$326.7M6$312.4M6$233.6M6
Operating cash flow$53.9M7$281.8M8$305.3M9$544.8M9$390.1M9
Capital expenditure$010$260M10$45.3M10$51.6M11$36.1M11
Free cash flow (derived)$53.9M7$21.8M8$259.9M9$493.1M9$354.1M9
Total debt$349.5M12$1.12B12$823,00013$974,00014$738,00014
Cash & equivalents$98.5M15$415.7M16$713.7M17$912.8M17$359.1M17
Diluted shares67.5M70.7M70.2M71.7M68.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$159.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.11

10 shares is a claim on $159.23 of net worth that earned you $34.12 and generated $51.73 of cash last year, against $0.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
107% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 3%FY23 332%FY24 177%FY25 32%

It earned about 107% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.36 and $313.76 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$313.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$354.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$173.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$354.1M
Earnings Power Value
$35.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$233.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $173.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$79.15
Base20.0%$173.89
Bull20.0%$173.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006158 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007970 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073498 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006158 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007970 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073498 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006158 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007970 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073498 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006158 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073498 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004698 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007970 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073498 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006158 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007970 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073498 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)